New England Revolution 1-3 Chicago Fire — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
4.71
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
48%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
9%
7.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
15%
9.2
1/2
9%
20.05
1/X
4%
17.7
X/1
12%
12.05
X/2
13%
4.18
X/X
12%
6.74
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
1.86
2/X
4%
15.75
Value flag · 1/1 at 9.2 — our 15% vs market 7.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
18%
+13.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.6pp
48%
Away Win
61%
-13.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -80% / -80%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -44%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
259 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 49.0
Crosses 41.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Chicago Fire
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
416 Passes 320
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
23.03.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 1-1 HT 1-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
24.09.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-2 HT 1-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
28.05.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 3-3 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
09.10.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-1 HT 0-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
01.09.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
1-3
AWAY Chicago Fire
0.31 xG 0.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
272 Passes 518
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire got the better of New England Revolution 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chicago Fire as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 37% of the ball to Chicago Fire's 63%, shots finished 9-4, expected goals 0.31 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New England Revolution and 1.17 for Chicago Fire.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?

New England Revolution 1-3 Chicago Fire in the USA - Open Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 31%, draw 21%, Chicago Fire 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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