San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers — Team-Based Signals
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-0
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
2-0
HT 1-0
San Jose Earthquakes
CONLK
0-0
HT 0-0
Portland Timbers
ABD
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers — Actual Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes nicked a narrow win over Portland Timbers 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had San Jose Earthquakes as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 59% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 41%, shots finished 29-14, expected goals 3.03 to 0.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold San Jose Earthquakes's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.83 for Portland Timbers.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers in the USA - Open Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 49%, draw 24%, Portland Timbers 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.