San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities
San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers — Team-Based Signals
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Portland Timbers — Actual Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Portland Timbers 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
Just as the model leaned, our model had San Jose Earthquakes as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (63%) never looked like landing.
The match data tells the story: San Jose Earthquakes had 59% of the ball to Portland Timbers's 41%, shots finished 29-14, expected goals 3.03 to 0.74 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold San Jose Earthquakes's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.83 for Portland Timbers.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Result & Final Score
San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 0 Portland Timbers in the USA - Open Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 54%, draw 22%, Portland Timbers 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.