Portland Timbers 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 May 2024

Portland Timbers
4-2 HT 0-2
San Jose Earthquakes
📅16/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.04
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.8
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.09
X/2
11%
7.03
X/X
15%
5.63
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
13%
4.37
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portland Timbers v San Jose Earthquakes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -9%
1.55/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.69
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
20.1 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portland Timbers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.94 xG 1.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
302 Passes 412
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-1 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
23.07.2023 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes CONLK
18.06.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 0-0 HT 0-0 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
24.07.2022 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-1 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
19.05.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 HT 2-1 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers ABD
28.10.2021 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD

Portland Timbers 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers
4-2
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
509 Passes 267
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Timbers beat San Jose Earthquakes 4-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Portland Timbers as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Portland Timbers had 63% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 37%, shots finished 23-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portland Timbers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Portland Timbers and 0.83 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Portland Timbers 4-2 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers 41%, draw 28%, San Jose Earthquakes 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portland Timbers), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portland Timbers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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