Austin 1-0 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.35
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
19%
5.08
X/2
12%
5.99
X/X
11%
4.49
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.23
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -1%
1.53/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.46
+30% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.5 Crosses 14.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
331 Passes 362
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2024 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-1 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
25.06.2023 Austin Austin 3-0 HT 2-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
28.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-1 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
19.03.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
13.07.2022 Austin Austin 3-1 HT 1-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
30.04.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-2 HT 1-1 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
1-0
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.49 xG 1.31
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
262 Passes 412
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Austin vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin edged past Houston Dynamo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 32% — and on the day Austin made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Austin had 41% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 59%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.49 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austin had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Austin and 1.00 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Austin vs Houston Dynamo?

Austin 1-0 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Austin 40%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Austin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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