DC United 1-4 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.21
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 30% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.16
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
11.8
X/1
15%
5.42
X/2
9%
6.59
X/X
12%
4.88
2/1
10%
24.85
2/2
11%
4.18
2/X
8%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+3.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME DC United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +19%
1.59/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.19
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.5 Crosses 15.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME DC United
0W-1D-5L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.68 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
282 Passes 230
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
14 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 DC United DC United 3-5 HT 3-3 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
21.08.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
10.05.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 1-0 DC United DC United ABDK
07.08.2022 DC United DC United 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
29.05.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-1 HT 0-0 DC United DC United ABD
11.05.2022 DC United DC United 0-3 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME DC United
1-4
AWAY New York Red Bulls
2.96 xG 2.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 5
338 Passes 214
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
37 Box Touches 23
28 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH DC United vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls cruised past DC United 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was DC United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, DC United had 59% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 41%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.96 to 2.29 — on chances, DC United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for DC United and 2.33 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

DC United 1-4 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for DC United vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated a DC United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split DC United 46%, draw 27%, New York Red Bulls 28%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (DC United), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (DC United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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