FC Cincinnati 1-0 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
5.13
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.01
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.13 — our 27% vs market 14.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.6pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.65/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.61
-7% / +97% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 82%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
14.1 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 1.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
287 Passes 415
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
31.08.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
14.08.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
17.04.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.11.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
1-0
AWAY Atlanta United
1.14 xG 0.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
380 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Atlanta United 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 49% of the ball to Atlanta United's 51%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.14 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.33 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Atlanta United?

FC Cincinnati 1-0 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 47%, draw 28%, Atlanta United 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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