Atlanta United 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
37%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.92 — our 26% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.69
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.9
X/2
14%
7.23
X/X
15%
5.69
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
15%
4.6
2/X
6%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
46%
-11.8pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+7.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.5pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.51/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.53
+20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.7 Crosses 12.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.93 xG 1.34
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
424 Passes 284
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
31.08.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
14.08.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
17.04.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
07.11.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-2 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
16.09.2021 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.95 xG 2.05
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
456 Passes 317
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 36
30 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati edged past Atlanta United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 59% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 41%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 1.95 to 2.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlanta United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atlanta United and 1.17 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

Atlanta United 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 35%, draw 29%, FC Cincinnati 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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