Inter Miami 3-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.45
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.82
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
14%
3.95
X/2
7%
12.8
X/X
9%
6.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.9
2/2
12%
9.13
2/X
7%
16.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+8.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter Miami EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 18%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +8%
1.66/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.40
+10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +100%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
11.4 Crosses 14.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter Miami
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 1.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
497 Passes 350
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.03.2024 Inter Miami Inter Miami 3-1 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC CON
08.03.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-2 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami CON
31.08.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
20.08.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 0-1 Inter Miami Inter Miami CONLK
24.05.2023 Inter Miami Inter Miami 2-1 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABDK
18.05.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-1 HT 1-0 Inter Miami Inter Miami ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter Miami
3-1
AWAY Nashville SC
2.82 xG 2.39
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
393 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Inter Miami vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter Miami got the better of Nashville SC 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Inter Miami as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Inter Miami had 52% of the ball to Nashville SC's 48%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 2.82 to 2.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter Miami had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Inter Miami and 1.17 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?

Inter Miami 3-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter Miami vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter Miami win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Inter Miami 55%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter Miami), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Inter Miami) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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