Toronto FC 1-0 New England Revolution — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 21 Apr 2024

Toronto FC
1-0 HT 0-0
New England Revolution
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.07
Over 2.5
57%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
14%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.15
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
16%
5.2
X/2
9%
6.3
X/X
9%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.85
2/2
16%
4.12
2/X
9%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.9pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toronto FC v New England Revolution — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.30/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.72
-14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
14.6 Crosses 18.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY New England Revolution
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 1.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 Passes 385
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.03.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-1 HT 0-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
25.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
07.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.08.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
31.07.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
15.08.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD

Toronto FC 1-0 New England Revolution — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-0
AWAY New England Revolution
1.50 xG 1.58
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 8
268 Passes 443
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs New England Revolution
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC nicked a narrow win over New England Revolution 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toronto FC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toronto FC had 39% of the ball to New England Revolution's 61%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.50 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toronto FC and 1.33 for New England Revolution.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

Toronto FC 1-0 New England Revolution in the USA - Major League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toronto FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 44%, draw 26%, New England Revolution 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toronto FC) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toronto FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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