New England Revolution 0-1 Toronto FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Mar 2024

New England Revolution
0-1 HT 0-1
Toronto FC
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.67
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 28% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
12%
7.66
X/X
8%
4.96
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
9%
5.51
2/X
12%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

New England Revolution v Toronto FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.52/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.94
-2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.5 Crosses 12.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

New England Revolution vs Toronto FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Toronto FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
364 Passes 417
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.06.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-1 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
07.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-2 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
18.08.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-2 HT 1-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
31.07.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
15.08.2021 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-2 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
08.07.2021 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-3 HT 0-3 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD

New England Revolution 0-1 Toronto FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
0-1
AWAY Toronto FC
1.85 xG 0.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
23 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
589 Passes 303
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 5
30 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Toronto FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toronto FC nicked a narrow win over New England Revolution 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was New England Revolution at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 64% of the ball to Toronto FC's 36%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.85 to 0.67 — on chances, New England Revolution could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for New England Revolution and 1.17 for Toronto FC.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?

New England Revolution 0-1 Toronto FC in the USA - Major League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Toronto FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 46%, draw 28%, Toronto FC 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (New England Revolution) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New England Revolution) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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