Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Mar 2024

Sporting Kansas City
1-1 HT 1-0
Philadelphia Union
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
14.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
12%
4.17
X/2
9%
8.21
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.0
2/2
10%
6.29
2/X
8%
14.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +32%
1.49/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.38
+4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.3 Crosses 17.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Kansas City
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.74 xG 1.66
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
376 Passes 255
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.04.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
31.07.2020 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-1 HT 3-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
10.03.2019 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 2-0 HT 1-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
23.09.2018 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
07.07.2017 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 1-1 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
28.08.2016 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Kansas City
1-1
AWAY Philadelphia Union
0.89 xG 0.54
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
506 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Kansas City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Kansas City had 59% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 41%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.89 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sporting Kansas City and 1.33 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Kansas City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sporting Kansas City 46%, draw 28%, Philadelphia Union 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Kansas City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
3 Mar 2024
00:00 Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC Analysis →
00:30 Inter Miami vs Orlando City Analysis →
03:30 Vancouver Whitecaps vs Charlotte Analysis →
04:30 FC Dallas vs CF Montreal Analysis →
04:30 Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati Analysis →
04:30 St. Louis City vs New York City FC Analysis →