Chicago Fire 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 30% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.09
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
12%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.02
X/2
15%
6.41
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
13%
4.35
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+5.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 34%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
1.37/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.56
-5% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.5 Crosses 12.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.52 xG 1.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
339 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.06.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
19.03.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 3-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.10.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-3 HT 0-0 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
15.05.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 1-2 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
21.10.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4 HT 2-2 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
24.06.2021 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.05 xG 0.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
375 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati squeezed past Chicago Fire 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; FC Cincinnati found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 51% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 49%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 1.05 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.00 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?

Chicago Fire 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 35%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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