Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 16%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.63/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.41
+2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +121% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
20.8 Crosses 9.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Brusque
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.20 xG 0.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
338 Passes 188
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 5
25 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.05.2025 Brusque Brusque 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-0
AWAY Brusque
1.58 xG 0.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
22 Total Shots 11
13 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
242 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense squeezed past Brusque 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 41% of the ball to Brusque's 59%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 1.58 to 0.53.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Brusque?

Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 55%, draw 23%, Brusque 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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