Nautico 1-2 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
47%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
26%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.8pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-8.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.2pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nautico EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 59%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.94/0.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.38
+12% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +139%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
260 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
16.0 Crosses 15.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nautico
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.28 xG 0.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
297 Passes 461
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.04.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Nautico Nautico BRK
17.10.2013 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Nautico Nautico BR1
04.09.2013 Nautico Nautico 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
18.11.2012 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR1
16.08.2012 Nautico Nautico 3-0 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.10.2009 Nautico Nautico 1-2 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nautico
1-2
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.22 xG 1.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
354 Passes 233
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 21
29 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nautico vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo edged past Nautico 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nautico had 58% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 42%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.22 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nautico and 1.67 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Nautico vs Sao Paulo?

Nautico 1-2 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nautico vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nautico 25%, draw 28%, Sao Paulo 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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