Sao Paulo vs Nautico Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sao Paulo v Nautico — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Nautico Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Nautico
BR1
0-1
HT 0-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
2-1
HT 0-0
Nautico
BR1
3-0
HT 2-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
1-2
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
2-0
HT 0-0
Nautico
BR1
Sao Paulo 2-1 Nautico — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo squeezed past Nautico 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sao Paulo had 58% of the ball to Nautico's 42%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.28.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.83 for Nautico.
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Nautico?
Sao Paulo 2-1 Nautico in the Brazil - Cup on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Nautico?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 55%, draw 25%, Nautico 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.