Sao Paulo 2-1 Nautico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 30 Apr 2025

📅30/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.29
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
20%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
73%
-18.5pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.5pp
20%
Away Win
9%
+11.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Nautico EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
2.00/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.64
-12% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / +150%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
449 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
29.3 Crosses 6.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Nautico
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
17.10.2013 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-0 HT 1-0 Nautico Nautico BR1
04.09.2013 Nautico Nautico 0-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
18.11.2012 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR1
16.08.2012 Nautico Nautico 3-0 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
01.10.2009 Nautico Nautico 1-2 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.06.2009 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-1
AWAY Nautico
0.92 xG 0.28
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 4
461 Passes 297
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Nautico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo squeezed past Nautico 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 58% of the ball to Nautico's 42%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.83 for Nautico.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Nautico?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Nautico in the Brazil - Cup on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Nautico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 55%, draw 25%, Nautico 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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