Retro 1-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 30 Apr 2025

Retro
1-1 HT 1-0
Fortaleza
📅30/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Retro vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.75
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
42%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
23%
+3.6pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.3pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-8.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Retro v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Retro EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 55%
+64% / +64% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+9% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / –
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
238 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
– Crosses 18.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Retro 1-1 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Retro
1-1
AWAY Fortaleza
0.54 xG 1.87
43% Ball Possession 57%
22 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 9
304 Passes 424
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Retro vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Retro and Fortaleza couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fortaleza at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Retro had 43% of the ball to Fortaleza's 57%, shots finished 22-22, expected goals 0.54 to 1.87.

What was the final score of Retro vs Fortaleza?

Retro 1-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Cup on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Retro vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Retro 27%, draw 32%, Fortaleza 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fortaleza), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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