Fluminense vs Aparecidense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fluminense v Aparecidense — Team-Based Signals
Fluminense 1-0 Aparecidense — Actual Match Statistics
Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Aparecidense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Fluminense had 67% of the ball to Aparecidense's 33%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 2.09 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fluminense's control.
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Aparecidense?
Fluminense 1-0 Aparecidense in the Brazil - Cup on 30/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Aparecidense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 57%, draw 24%, Aparecidense 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.