TPS Turku 2-2 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.09
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
2.07
Over 2.5
39%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
9.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-7.4pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.2pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
44%
+16.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
56%
-16.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.7pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.45/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/2.00
-12% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Lahti
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2025 TPS Turku TPS Turku 3-2 FC Lahti FC Lahti FINYK
23.10.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-1 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
20.10.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
17.09.2020 FC Lahti FC Lahti 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
25.07.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
30.09.2018 FC Lahti FC Lahti 2-5 HT 1-4 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
2-2
AWAY FC Lahti
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 14
6 Corners 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku and FC Lahti shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 32% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, TPS Turku had 42% of the ball to FC Lahti's 58%, shots finished 6-24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for TPS Turku and 1.83 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs FC Lahti?

TPS Turku 2-2 FC Lahti in the Finland - Ykkönen on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 37%, draw 32%, FC Lahti 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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