Lilleström 1-1 Fredrikstad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - NM Cup, 21 May 2025

📅21/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
4.43
6+ Goals
7%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.41
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
10%
5.19
X/2
9%
6.48
X/X
14%
4.03
2/1
3%
30.5
2/2 EV+ ✗
22%
4.83
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/2 at 4.83 — our 22% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.0pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 33%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
2.74/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.07
+84% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.93 xG 2.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
350 Passes 224
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 35
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 2-1 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
20.05.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 0-3 HT 0-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
27.01.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
01.09.2012 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
09.07.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 3-4 HT 1-2 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
27.11.2011 Lilleström Lilleström 0-0 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
1-1
AWAY Fredrikstad
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Fredrikstad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström and Fredrikstad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lilleström had 56% of the ball to Fredrikstad's 44%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fredrikstad led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lilleström and 1.83 for Fredrikstad.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Fredrikstad?

Lilleström 1-1 Fredrikstad in the Norway - NM Cup on 21/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Fredrikstad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 37%, draw 28%, Fredrikstad 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lilleström), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lilleström) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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