Fredrikstad 2-1 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
13%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 23% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
14%
4.53
X/2
11%
7.45
X/X
15%
4.64
2/1
11%
24.85
2/2
12%
5.46
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.2pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.60/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.70
+9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -21%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
18.5 Crosses 20.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fredrikstad
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lilleström
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
172 Passes 365
61% Pass Accuracy 74%
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.05.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 0-3 HT 0-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
27.01.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
01.09.2012 Lilleström Lilleström 1-2 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
09.07.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 3-4 HT 1-2 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
27.11.2011 Lilleström Lilleström 0-0 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
06.05.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-1 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fredrikstad
2-1
AWAY Lilleström
2.06 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
277 Passes 334
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
35 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fredrikstad vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad edged past Lilleström 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fredrikstad as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fredrikstad had 47% of the ball to Lilleström's 53%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.06 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.33 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Lilleström?

Fredrikstad 2-1 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fredrikstad vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fredrikstad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fredrikstad 41%, draw 31%, Lilleström 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fredrikstad), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fredrikstad) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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