Qabala 3-1 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 May 2026

Qabala
3-1 HT 3-1
Shamakhi
📅21/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Qabala vs Shamakhi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Qabala v Shamakhi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Qabala EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 22%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
1.48/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.25
-12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
492 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Qabala vs Shamakhi Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Qabala
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.01.2026 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-4 HT 0-1 Qabala Qabala AZERS
05.10.2025 Qabala Qabala 0-1 HT 0-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
22.05.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-0 HT 0-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
17.03.2023 Qabala Qabala 2-0 HT 2-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
14.10.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-1 HT 0-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
14.08.2022 Qabala Qabala 3-1 HT 3-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Qabala vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Qabala got the better of Shamakhi 3-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Qabala as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Qabala had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Qabala and 0.50 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Qabala vs Shamakhi?

Qabala 3-1 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Qabala vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Qabala win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Qabala 51%, draw 26%, Shamakhi 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Qabala) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Qabala) ✗ Under 2.5
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