BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Ogre United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 21 May 2026

BFC Daugavpils
3-1 HT 2-0
Ogre United
📅21/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Latvia - Virsliga – 2026

BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
18%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.76
No
42%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
18%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-7.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.8pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.9pp
42%
BTTS No
47%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BFC Daugavpils v Ogre United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ogre United EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.87/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/2.12
+37% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -55%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 71%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.1 Crosses 18.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ogre United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.12 xG 1.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 15
11 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
250 Passes 245
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
07.04.2026 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-1 HT 2-0 Ogre United LET

BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Ogre United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-1
AWAY Ogre United
2.21 xG 0.99
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
318 Passes 293
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils beat Ogre United 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had BFC Daugavpils as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 52% of the ball to Ogre United's 48%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.21 to 0.99.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?

BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Ogre United in the Latvia - Virsliga on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 58%, draw 23%, Ogre United 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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