South Melbourne 4-0 Altona Magic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 21 Jun 2024

📅21/06/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
34%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
68%
-12.1pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+9.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Altona Magic EU Bookmakers 17%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.51/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.47
+4% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.2 Crosses 20.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Altona Magic
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 0.68
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
146 Passes 326
61% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2024 Altona Magic Altona Magic 1-4 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
29.07.2023 Altona Magic Altona Magic 1-4 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
30.04.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 5-1 HT 1-1 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
23.07.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-0 HT 2-0 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
25.04.2022 Altona Magic Altona Magic 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.06.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-2 HT 1-1 Altona Magic Altona Magic AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Altona Magic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne swept aside Altona Magic 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for South Melbourne and 0.83 for Altona Magic.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Altona Magic?

South Melbourne 4-0 Altona Magic in the Australia - National Premier League on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Altona Magic?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 56%, draw 21%, Altona Magic 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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