Flamengo 2-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Jun 2024

Flamengo
2-1 HT 1-1
Bahia
📅21/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
33%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 30% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.04
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
17%
3.89
X/2 EV+ ✗
14%
10.7
X/X
8%
5.26
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
11%
8.36
2/X
9%
15.85
Value flag · X/2 at 10.7 — our 14% vs market 6.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
58%
-13.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
18%
+14.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Flamengo v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.83/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.41
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
432 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
21.2 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Flamengo vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Bahia
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.50 xG 0.89
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
457 Passes 292
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.05.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 1-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
12.11.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.07.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-5 HT 0-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
21.12.2020 Flamengo Flamengo 4-3 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
03.09.2020 Bahia Bahia 3-5 HT 2-3 Flamengo Flamengo BR1

Flamengo 2-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Bahia
1.09 xG 0.75
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
316 Passes 666
87% Pass Accuracy 93%
25 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Bahia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Flamengo had 35% of the ball to Bahia's 65%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.09 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Flamengo and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Bahia?

Flamengo 2-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 44%, draw 23%, Bahia 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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