Vitoria 4-2 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Jun 2024

📅21/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.48
Over 2.5
42%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
5.82
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
10%
5.44
X/2
11%
5.13
X/X
13%
3.44
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
4.0
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.6pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+6.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
64%
-6.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
36%
+6.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 38%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.39/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.19
-2% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.9 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
255 Passes 410
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
22.04.2018 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
25.09.2017 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-3 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.06.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
08.09.2016 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
29.05.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
4-2
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.47 xG 1.91
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
259 Passes 458
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria beat Atletico Mineiro 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 39% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 61%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 1.47 to 1.91 — on chances, Atletico Mineiro could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria and 1.00 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Atletico Mineiro?

Vitoria 4-2 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 31%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 41%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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