Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Jun 2026

Vila Nova
4-3 HT 4-1
Nautico
📅21/06/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2026

Vila Nova vs Nautico Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.64
Over 2.5
50%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.52
2-3 Goals
43%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
10%
20.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.1pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Nautico — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nautico EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.27/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.30
+11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.2 Crosses 19.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Vila Nova vs Nautico Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Nautico
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 0.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
254 Passes 311
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.03.2023 Nautico Nautico 2-1 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRK
20.08.2022 Nautico Nautico 1-2 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
07.05.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 2-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
11.09.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 1-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
16.06.2021 Nautico Nautico 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.11.2017 Nautico Nautico 1-2 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2

Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
4-3
AWAY Nautico
1.54 xG 2.22
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
195 Passes 440
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 33
5 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Nautico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Nautico 4-3. Half-time: 4-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Vila Nova had 32% of the ball to Nautico's 68%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.54 to 2.22 — on chances, Nautico could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vila Nova and 1.00 for Nautico.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Nautico?

Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Nautico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 43%, draw 25%, Nautico 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ BTTS Yes
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