Elfsborg 3-1 Mjallby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 21 Jul 2024

Elfsborg
3-1 HT 2-1
Mjallby
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Elfsborg vs Mjallby Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
13%
4.26
X/2
9%
8.3
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
12%
6.03
2/X
9%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v Mjallby — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Mjallby EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +24%
1.48/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.25
+18% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +60%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
21.9 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Elfsborg vs Mjallby Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mjallby
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
341 Passes 290
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-0 HT 2-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ
29.04.2023 Mjallby Mjallby 0-1 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
07.08.2022 Mjallby Mjallby 1-1 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
04.04.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-2 HT 0-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ
26.09.2021 Mjallby Mjallby 4-0 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
26.04.2021 Elfsborg Elfsborg 1-0 HT 1-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ

Elfsborg 3-1 Mjallby — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
3-1
AWAY Mjallby
2.36 xG 1.11
35% Ball Possession 65%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
241 Passes 483
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Mjallby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg got the better of Mjallby 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 35% of the ball to Mjallby's 65%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.36 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Elfsborg and 1.17 for Mjallby.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Mjallby?

Elfsborg 3-1 Mjallby in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Mjallby?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 47%, draw 26%, Mjallby 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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