Independiente Petrolero 2-1 Aurora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.3pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Petrolero EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurora EU Bookmakers 34%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.30/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.29
-25% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.1 Crosses 14.9
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Petrolero
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Aurora
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.95 xG 1.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
265 Passes 276
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Aurora Aurora 2-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
06.08.2023 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-1 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
05.03.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero BOLİ
11.10.2022 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 1-1 HT 0-1 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
28.09.2021 Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 3-0 HT 1-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Petrolero
2-1
AWAY Aurora
1.26 xG 1.49
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
158 Passes 215
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
15 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Petrolero edged past Aurora 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Independiente Petrolero made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Petrolero had 43% of the ball to Aurora's 57%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.26 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Independiente Petrolero had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Independiente Petrolero and 1.20 for Aurora.

What was the final score of Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora?

Independiente Petrolero 2-1 Aurora in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Petrolero win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Independiente Petrolero 38%, draw 28%, Aurora 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Petrolero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Petrolero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BOLİ More Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme
21 Jul 2024
00:30 Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs The Strongest Analysis →
03:00 Wilstermann vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo Analysis →