Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 Tallinna Kalev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
68%
-14.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.7pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 16%
-15% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +28%
2.45/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.17
+7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.06.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-5 HT 2-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
04.05.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 2-0 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
27.09.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 2-1 HT 1-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
12.08.2023 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 1-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
24.05.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-1 HT 0-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
15.04.2023 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 0-1 HT 0-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
3-1
AWAY Tallinna Kalev
57% Ball Possession 43%
27 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paide Linnameeskond vs Tallinna Kalev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paide Linnameeskond saw off Tallinna Kalev 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paide Linnameeskond as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Paide Linnameeskond had 57% of the ball to Tallinna Kalev's 43%, shots finished 27-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paide Linnameeskond and 1.17 for Tallinna Kalev.

What was the final score of Paide Linnameeskond vs Tallinna Kalev?

Paide Linnameeskond 3-1 Tallinna Kalev in the Estonia - Premium League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paide Linnameeskond vs Tallinna Kalev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Paide Linnameeskond 54%, draw 25%, Tallinna Kalev 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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