Backa Topola 1-0 IMT Novi Beograd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
71%
-11.0pp
18%
Draw
18%
+0.3pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY IMT Novi Beograd EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.42/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.62
-2% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -6%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
409 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 69%
35.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.8 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
2W-0D-0L
AWAY IMT Novi Beograd
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.96 xG 1.20
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
412 Passes 226
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 IMT Novi Beograd IMT Novi Beograd 0-2 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
26.08.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-0 HT 0-0 IMT Novi Beograd IMT Novi Beograd SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-0
AWAY IMT Novi Beograd
2.24 xG 1.27
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
436 Passes 163
83% Pass Accuracy 65%
27 Box Touches 20
27 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs IMT Novi Beograd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola squeezed past IMT Novi Beograd 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Backa Topola had 67% of the ball to IMT Novi Beograd's 33%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.24 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Backa Topola and 0.00 for IMT Novi Beograd.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs IMT Novi Beograd?

Backa Topola 1-0 IMT Novi Beograd in the Serbia - Super League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs IMT Novi Beograd?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 60%, draw 18%, IMT Novi Beograd 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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