Novi Pazar 3-2 Spartak Subotica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
1.89
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.64
Over 2.5
35%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
49%
-15.6pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.8pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
57%
+7.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
43%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.3pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Subotica EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.29/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.26
-35% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.1 Crosses 18.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Spartak Subotica
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.27 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 Passes 247
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.05.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica SIRP
08.03.2024 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
21.12.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica SIRP
01.03.2023 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica 2-0 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
30.08.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica SIRP
20.03.2022 Spartak Subotica Spartak Subotica 1-2 HT 1-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
3-2
AWAY Spartak Subotica
1.19 xG 0.82
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
301 Passes 371
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Spartak Subotica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar edged past Spartak Subotica 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 34% / 33%) promised a tight game; Novi Pazar found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 46% of the ball to Spartak Subotica's 54%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.19 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Novi Pazar and 0.83 for Spartak Subotica.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Spartak Subotica?

Novi Pazar 3-2 Spartak Subotica in the Serbia - Super League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Spartak Subotica?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 33%, draw 34%, Spartak Subotica 33%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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