AGF Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jul 2026

📅21/07/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
12%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-4
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.98 xG 1.55
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 2
275 Passes 391
20 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
FAQ AGF Aarhus vs Lech Poznan
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Lech Poznan ran out comfortable winners over AGF Aarhus 4-1 away from home in the Champions League on 21 Jul 2026. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.98 to 1.55.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

AGF Aarhus 1-4 Lech Poznan in the Champions League on 21/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 38%, draw 28%, Lech Poznan 34%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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