Sturm Graz 4-0 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jul 2026

📅21/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.8
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
52%
+1.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 27%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
4-0
AWAY Hearts
2.28 xG 1.68
20 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 12
145 Passes 352
27 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz swept aside Hearts 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 20-19, expected goals 2.28 to 1.68.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Hearts?

Sturm Graz 4-0 Hearts in the Champions League on 21/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 53%, draw 21%, Hearts 26%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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