Amazonas 2-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
4.81
6+ Goals
8%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 38% vs market 34.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-1.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.9pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.7pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amazonas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 24%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.89/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.22
+2% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
24.9 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amazonas
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.36 xG 0.76
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
480 Passes 349
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.05.2024 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 3-0 HT 2-0 Amazonas Amazonas BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amazonas
2-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.01 xG 0.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
301 Passes 364
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Amazonas vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amazonas edged past Ponte Preta 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Amazonas as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amazonas had 47% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 53%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.01 to 0.61.

What was the final score of Amazonas vs Ponte Preta?

Amazonas 2-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amazonas vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amazonas win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Amazonas 50%, draw 31%, Ponte Preta 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amazonas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amazonas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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