Operario PR 2-3 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
1.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
12%
7.31
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.4pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Operario PR EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -11%
1.03/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.99
-19% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
21.8 Crosses 15.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Operario PR
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 1.22
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
330 Passes 277
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
01.10.2022 Operario PR Operario PR 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
17.06.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
29.09.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 1-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
29.06.2021 Operario PR Operario PR 1-2 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
09.11.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Operario PR
2-3
AWAY Vila Nova
1.51 xG 0.66
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
272 Passes 220
73% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Operario PR vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova squeezed past Operario PR 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Operario PR at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Operario PR had 53% of the ball to Vila Nova's 47%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.51 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured Operario PR.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Operario PR and 1.00 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Operario PR vs Vila Nova?

Operario PR 2-3 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Operario PR vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Operario PR win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Operario PR 46%, draw 29%, Vila Nova 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Operario PR) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
21 Aug 2024
01:00 Novorizontino vs Ituano Analysis →
03:00 Amazonas vs Ponte Preta Analysis →