Gnistan 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.21
2-3 Goals
46%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 26% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
13%
4.12
X/2
7%
8.13
X/X
10%
4.79
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
15%
6.3
2/X
8%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 27%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.89/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.49
+17% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
21.9 Crosses 18.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
0W-3D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
329 Passes 338
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
01.03.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
29.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 3-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
25.10.2023 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.27 xG 0.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
429 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan edged past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gnistan had 57% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 43%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.27 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Gnistan and 1.00 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Gnistan 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 46%, draw 27%, IFK Mariehamn 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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