IFK Mariehamn 1-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.43
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
9%
5.11
X/2
10%
5.96
X/X
13%
4.29
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
16%
4.26
2/X
10%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.40/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.51
-3% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 83%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
18.5 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Gnistan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.85 xG 0.48
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 6
370 Passes 365
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 4
01.03.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
29.10.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 3-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
25.10.2023 Gnistan Gnistan 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-1
AWAY Gnistan
0.53 xG 1.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
276 Passes 258
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
8 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn and Gnistan shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 50% of the ball to Gnistan's 50%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.53 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 0.00 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs Gnistan?

IFK Mariehamn 1-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 36%, draw 29%, Gnistan 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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