Karvina 1-0 Jablonec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.86
Over 2.5
42%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
8%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 32% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
50%
+8.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
50%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karvina EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Jablonec EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.61/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.29
+0% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
217 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
28.4 Crosses 17.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karvina
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Jablonec
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.27 xG 0.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
168 Passes 176
61% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Jablonec Jablonec 3-2 HT 1-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
16.12.2023 Jablonec Jablonec 0-0 HT 0-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
19.08.2023 Karvina Karvina 1-1 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
01.05.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 2-0 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
13.02.2022 Karvina Karvina 1-1 HT 0-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
12.09.2021 Jablonec Jablonec 1-0 HT 1-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karvina
1-0
AWAY Jablonec
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 264
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Karvina vs Jablonec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karvina edged past Jablonec 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Karvina made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Karvina had 55% of the ball to Jablonec's 45%, shots finished 16-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jablonec led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Karvina and 1.33 for Jablonec.

What was the final score of Karvina vs Jablonec?

Karvina 1-0 Jablonec in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karvina vs Jablonec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karvina win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Karvina 39%, draw 29%, Jablonec 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karvina), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karvina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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