St. Mirren 2-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 21 Sep 2024

St. Mirren
2-1 HT 2-1
Hearts
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

St. Mirren vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.89
6+ Goals
11%
17.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.89 — our 23% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.01
1/2
10%
29.5
1/X
12%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.69
X/2
9%
5.29
X/X
13%
4.29
2/1
9%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.62
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-2.9pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Mirren v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.18/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.40
-4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
242 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 74%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
25.9 Crosses 19.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

St. Mirren vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hearts
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 1.57
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
206 Passes 356
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.04.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
23.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
23.09.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
13.05.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
08.04.2023 Hearts Hearts 0-2 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP

St. Mirren 2-1 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
2-1
AWAY Hearts
1.17 xG 0.39
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
169 Passes 345
64% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren squeezed past Hearts 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day St. Mirren made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 37% of the ball to Hearts's 63%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.17 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for St. Mirren and 1.33 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hearts?

St. Mirren 2-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 32%, draw 30%, Hearts 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hearts) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ BTTS Yes
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