St. Mirren 1-2 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.46
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 34% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.38
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
12%
4.87
X/2
15%
6.1
X/X
13%
3.94
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
12%
4.65
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.33/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.45
-5% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
238 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 69%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
28.0 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.35
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
170 Passes 430
63% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
23.09.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
13.05.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
08.04.2023 Hearts Hearts 0-2 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
13.01.2023 Hearts Hearts 1-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
07.01.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 1-1 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
1-2
AWAY Hearts
0.89 xG 2.37
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 7
291 Passes 183
73% Pass Accuracy 63%
18 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts squeezed past St. Mirren 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Hearts made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Mirren had 59% of the ball to Hearts's 41%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.89 to 2.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hearts's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Mirren and 1.00 for Hearts.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hearts?

St. Mirren 1-2 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 35%, draw 29%, Hearts 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/29/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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