Kalmar 0-1 AIK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 21 Sep 2024

Kalmar
0-1 HT 0-0
AIK
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
48%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.68
Over 2.5
50%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.38
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
5%
15.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
7.83
X/2
14%
4.12
X/X
11%
4.27
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.59
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · X/1 at 7.83 — our 15% vs market 9.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+6.7pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.3pp
48%
Away Win
49%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY AIK EU Bookmakers 53%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
0.94/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.30
-25% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
15.9 Crosses 17.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY AIK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.52 xG 1.55
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
415 Passes 352
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.07.2024 AIK AIK 1-2 HT 0-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
03.03.2024 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 0-1 AIK AIK İSÇK
06.08.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 1-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
04.06.2023 AIK AIK 1-1 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
07.08.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
17.07.2022 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 1-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
0-1
AWAY AIK
0.91 xG 0.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
437 Passes 360
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs AIK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK squeezed past Kalmar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AIK as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kalmar had 54% of the ball to AIK's 46%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.91 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalmar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kalmar and 0.83 for AIK.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs AIK?

Kalmar 0-1 AIK in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs AIK?

Before kick-off our model rated an AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 31%, draw 22%, AIK 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✓ BTTS No
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