AIK 1-2 Kalmar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 7 Jul 2024

AIK
1-2 HT 0-1
Kalmar
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

AIK vs Kalmar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.06
6+ Goals
13%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.8
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.65
X/1
23%
3.73
X/2
10%
13.15
X/X
8%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
2/2
8%
10.2
2/X
7%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.7pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.1pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AIK v Kalmar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalmar EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.62/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.81
-11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.9 Crosses 13.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

AIK vs Kalmar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Kalmar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.53 xG 1.45
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
350 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 0-1 AIK AIK İSÇK
06.08.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 1-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
04.06.2023 AIK AIK 1-1 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
07.08.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
17.07.2022 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 1-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
23.09.2021 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ

AIK 1-2 Kalmar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
1-2
AWAY Kalmar
1.18 xG 1.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
362 Passes 325
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AIK vs Kalmar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar squeezed past AIK 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AIK at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, AIK had 53% of the ball to Kalmar's 47%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.18 to 1.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AIK and 0.83 for Kalmar.

What was the final score of AIK vs Kalmar?

AIK 1-2 Kalmar in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Kalmar?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split AIK 57%, draw 21%, Kalmar 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (AIK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AIK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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