Real Madrid 4-1 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Sep 2024

Real Madrid
4-1 HT 0-0
Espanyol
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Madrid vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.99
2-3 Goals
35%
2.19
4-5 Goals
29%
2.46
6+ Goals
15%
4.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.24
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
18%
3.5
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
8%
12.05
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
5%
28.5
2/X
5%
33.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
82%
-13.4pp
18%
Draw
11%
+6.9pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Espanyol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 9%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
2.28/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/2.03
+11% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +19%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
504 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
40.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
19.3 Crosses 13.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Real Madrid vs Espanyol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Espanyol
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.03 xG 1.06
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
540 Passes 262
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.03.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
28.08.2022 Espanyol Espanyol 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.04.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 2-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
03.10.2021 Espanyol Espanyol 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
28.06.2020 Espanyol Espanyol 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
07.12.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS1

Real Madrid 4-1 Espanyol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-1
AWAY Espanyol
4.46 xG 0.34
73% Ball Possession 27%
31 Total Shots 10
14 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
637 Passes 177
91% Pass Accuracy 68%
60 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid swept aside Espanyol 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 73% of the ball to Espanyol's 27%, shots finished 31-10, expected goals 4.46 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 0.67 for Espanyol.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Espanyol?

Real Madrid 4-1 Espanyol in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 68%, draw 18%, Espanyol 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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