Osasuna 2-1 Las Palmas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.48
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.25
X/1
18%
4.11
X/2
10%
8.21
X/X
17%
4.52
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.52
2/X
5%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +7%
1.70/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.29
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 74%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
25.0 Crosses 19.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Las Palmas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 0.74
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
234 Passes 455
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
11.11.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-1 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
25.05.2019 Osasuna Osasuna 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
12.01.2019 Las Palmas Las Palmas 4-1 HT 3-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS2
05.03.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 5-2 HT 1-2 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
01.10.2016 Osasuna Osasuna 2-2 HT 2-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
2-1
AWAY Las Palmas
1.97 xG 0.85
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
230 Passes 406
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Las Palmas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna nicked a narrow win over Las Palmas 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Osasuna as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osasuna had 39% of the ball to Las Palmas's 61%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.97 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Palmas led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osasuna and 2.17 for Las Palmas.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Las Palmas?

Osasuna 2-1 Las Palmas in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Las Palmas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osasuna win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 46%, draw 27%, Las Palmas 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osasuna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osasuna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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