Boca Juniors 0-1 River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
32%
2.77
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
5.87
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.98
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
17%
5.25
X/2
13%
5.7
X/X
19%
3.28
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
9%
4.48
2/X
5%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.5pp
32%
Draw
33%
-0.9pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+0.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY River Plate EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +19%
0.91/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.44
+18% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +88% / +2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.6 Crosses 17.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
3W-1D-2L
AWAY River Plate
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.41
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
228 Passes 328
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 4
21.04.2024 River Plate River Plate 2-3 HT 1-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
25.02.2024 River Plate River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
01.10.2023 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
07.05.2023 River Plate River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
11.09.2022 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
21.03.2022 River Plate River Plate 0-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
0-1
AWAY River Plate
0.53 xG 0.74
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 0
260 Passes 209
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
9 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate nicked a narrow win over Boca Juniors 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; River Plate found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 56% of the ball to River Plate's 44%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 0.53 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for River Plate.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Boca Juniors 0-1 River Plate in the Argentina - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 39%, draw 32%, River Plate 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Boca Juniors) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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