Turan Tovuz 1-2 Araz Nahçıvan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.56
Over 2.5
49%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
60%
-9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
40%
+9.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.99/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.47
+32% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
11.05.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 0-1 HT 0-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
10.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 2-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
24.12.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 3-1 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
04.08.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 3-0 HT 0-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Araz Nahçıvan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan edged past Turan Tovuz 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Turan Tovuz at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Turan Tovuz had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Turan Tovuz and 0.25 for Araz Nahçıvan.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Turan Tovuz 1-2 Araz Nahçıvan in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Turan Tovuz win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 49%, draw 25%, Araz Nahçıvan 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Turan Tovuz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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