Gomel 2-1 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 29% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-12.1pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.6pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gomel EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
2.08/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.13
+28% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gomel
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-2 HT 0-2 Gomel Gomel BLR
12.08.2023 Gomel Gomel 3-2 HT 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
01.04.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 HT 1-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
15.11.2020 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-4 HT 1-2 Gomel Gomel BLR1
18.04.2020 Gomel Gomel 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
04.10.2015 Gomel Gomel 1-4 HT 0-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gomel
2-1
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gomel vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gomel edged past Naftan Novopolotsk 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gomel as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gomel had 61% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 39%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gomel had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gomel and 1.33 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Gomel vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Gomel 2-1 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gomel vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gomel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gomel 44%, draw 31%, Naftan Novopolotsk 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gomel), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gomel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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