Cumbaya 0-3 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 21 Sep 2024

Cumbaya
0-3 HT 0-1
Aucas
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Cumbaya vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.75
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.67
Over 2.5
36%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.96
No
63%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
25%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
23%
+0.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.8pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cumbaya v Aucas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 56%
+12% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
0.79/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.41
-18% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -54%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
210 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
11.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
12.6 Crosses 16.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2

Cumbaya vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cumbaya
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Aucas
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.74 xG 1.25
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Aucas Aucas 3-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
24.09.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
25.04.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-1 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
03.10.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
02.10.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
08.05.2022 Aucas Aucas 1-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1

Cumbaya 0-3 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cumbaya
0-3
AWAY Aucas
0.55 xG 1.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 362
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cumbaya vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas cruised past Cumbaya 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, Cumbaya had 47% of the ball to Aucas's 53%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.55 to 1.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aucas led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cumbaya and 1.17 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Cumbaya vs Aucas?

Cumbaya 0-3 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 24%, draw 29%, Aucas 48%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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