Libertad 1-1 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
51%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.09
No
45%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.7pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
50%
Away Win
66%
-15.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
44%
+11.4pp
45%
BTTS No
56%
-11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 70%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
0.83/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.71
-24% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +79%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
226 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
11.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
17.9 Crosses 21.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.49 xG 1.11
30% Ball Possession 70%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
177 Passes 510
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
6 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-1
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.25 xG 1.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 9
133 Passes 308
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Independiente Del Valle couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 35% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 65%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Libertad and 1.67 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Libertad 1-1 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Libertad 23%, draw 26%, Independiente Del Valle 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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