Roda 1-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.31
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.05
X/1 EV+ ✓
22%
4.59
X/2
12%
8.75
X/X
6%
5.96
2/1
8%
20.5
2/2
13%
5.63
2/X
9%
13.4
Value flag · X/1 at 4.59 — our 22% vs market 17.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.1pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
1.62/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.68
-1% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.6 Crosses 14.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
4W-2D-0L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.24 xG 0.78
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
412 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-3 HT 0-1 Roda Roda HOL2
26.11.2023 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
05.02.2023 Roda Roda 2-1 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
04.09.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
07.01.2022 Roda Roda 1-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
29.11.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
1-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.86 xG 1.18
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
443 Passes 236
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Roda vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda squeezed past MVV Maastricht 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roda as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roda had 62% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 38%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 0.86 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roda and 0.50 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Roda vs MVV Maastricht?

Roda 1-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Roda 46%, draw 24%, MVV Maastricht 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roda) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
21 Sep 2024
19:45 Vitesse vs Ajax II Analysis →